One of my staff colleagues speaks of the demonic, of possession, of exorcism. You’d have to go to him for the details, because I don’t presently care to get them. Very early in spiritual direction, almost three decades ago, I asked my director about it. Don’t go there, he advised in so many words. I got the impression that just chatting up the topic provided too many inroads. Focus on the light. Pray. Don’t get caught up in the peripherals, however fascinating they might seem.
I dated a nursing student in college who drew up my astrological chart. I know your birthday, she said, but if we knew the exact minute of your birth, I could do a really accurate chart. “12:59pm,” I said. Do you need my latitude and longitude, too? And we were off to the races of the occult, as one might say.
It was pretty harmless, but one thing she said struck me and has stuck with me for a long time. You have a virtuous exterior life, she commented. But you are attracted to the sullied, the polluted, and the dirty. My conservative friends would say that’s obvious: I dabble in professional progressivism.
My wife urges I avoid any semblance of gambling. She disliked when I won third prize in my first live backgammon tournament when we lived in Kansas City. I gave her the winnings, but she said she would prefer I not “gamble.” I respect her wishes. I play online for fun and occasional glory. No money. I know my wife doesn’t distinguish between the fine lines of buying into a tournament with cash prizes. I don’t play to win so much as I play to compete. Winning is one logical result of superior play. Another is inflicting as much difficulty on a superior opponent before the inevitable concession. When I play on the net, I do get to play many superior opponents. I play in three leagues, and 2012 has not gotten off to a stellar start. Ten wins, twenty-two losses, and not a lot of difficulty for even those opponents who are a close match.
But getting back to my colleague’s expertise, I sit unconvinced of the importance of the demonic. Does that make me more susceptible to evil? I might counter that blaming another entity for what’s wrong is rather convenient, and gets us off the hook. People are responsible for their own conduct. I think conduct produces consequences. It’s less karma than good parenting. I can make a choice to goof off, but eventually my unpreparedness will mean a bigger repair bill at the house, more of a crush for time when a project is finally due, or more making amends if I’ve let a friendship slide.
Does that mean unexplained bad things never happen? Not at all. I’m just not convinced that bad things are terribly important in the long run. Just this morning, I rolled a very fortunate double 3 (2.78% chance) that enabled me to get my two pieces off the bar, and capture in turn my opponent’s. Instead of losing the game and trailing in the match 3-0, the score was tied 1-1. Alas, it was a momentary bob above water. The match went 11-2 in my opponent’s favor.
I can rail against bad luck, but to what point? My software analysis confirmed my opponent out-lucked me 18 moves to 9. But I still made errors in the match. I can’t control the dice, but I can learn from my errors and strive to be a better player with what the dice give me to play.
I used to like chess best of all games. No luck whatsoever. Sheer skill. But in my middle age, I find myself more drawn to backgammon. Enough luck to give a weaker player much more hope than a weaker player of chess. And that bites the other way, too. I can get stung by an up-and-coming player, too. But I’m never quite the master of my fate, the way I was in chess.
In backgammon, one can convince oneself the wins are due to skill and the losses blamed on luck. Self-deception is a huge temptation, but ultimately, players indulging in that mindset will only handicap themselves and their future prospects. Consequences. Not luck. Not mean little red imps tipping the dice to send the unlucky, the unloved, on tilt.
As for the choice in the title, is evil an influence or a choice, I’m inclined to stick with the latter. We choose to be bad. The random universe gives us opportunities aplenty to treat as obstacles or as helping hands. I certainly don’t want to be the sort of Christian who pats myself on the back for the good and blames somebody else for my bad. And I’m good with taking good advice to avoid some areas on general principle. Places like Vegas. Things like winnings. Am I good on that?
20 October 2012
Falsification
Posted by catholicsensibility under bishops, Commentary, Games, Ministry, PoliticsLeave a Comment
Falsification is the principle by which a person tests her or his ideas for possible flaws. In a nutshell, a person considers a plan and then reflects on the possibilities that might derail the effort. Good scientists engage in it. A hypothesis is forwarded, and the researcher considers ways in which a theory can be proved wrong. It strikes me as a rational and orderly approach to the principle “What can go wrong, will go wrong.” Pessimism or pragmatism? Either way, it’s at the core of skilled scientific inquiry.
Something caught my attention in this month’s issue of Chess Life: Andy Soltis’ regular column “Chess To Enjoy.” In it, he looks at the difficult and complex relationship between optimism, worry, and success at the chessboard. In probing the idea of worry, he cites a 2004 study by Michelle Cowley and Ruth Byrne. In this research a group of chessplayers of varying abilities were tested, from average tournament players to the master level, and even a grandmaster. They were given various chess positions and asked to think “out loud” as they analyzed the situation and tried to find the best move.
Top players would find a candidate move, then spend considerable time searching for ways in which the opponent could counter. Players below master level routinely engaged in confirmation bias. When they found a move they loved, they would look for affirmation, then play it. Great chessplayers are thought to be far-thinking in their calculating processes. And the Cowley-Byrne research confirmed this. But more striking to psychologists was the content of the extended calculations. Masters underestimate their candidate move, presume the best of an opponent, and look for flaws in their idea. Amateurs are overconfident, grow attached to their good ideas, and look not so much to the best of what an opponent can deliver to counter their efforts.
Some observations …
In more than a decade online, I have to say that the internet is full of amateurs. People who have good ideas, and who trot them out there with the highest hopes. Often, issues are quickly muddied up, even if they’re citing good authorities. It’s the confirmation bias of chessplayers below the level of master. They don’t test their ideas in the crucible of critical thinking. Things have probably worsened for people who just hang with like-minded allies. Their arguments don’t get poked, probed, and pushed back.
I could use more falsification in my ministry. We’re just starting to revise Communion ministry procedure at the altar in my parish, for a possible implementation after we return to the church and when the pastor comes back from his leave. Lots of things have been suggested, and in one particular suggestion to get the chalices in the hands of the lay Communion ministers more expediently, I take the role of the pessimist. What can go wrong with this procedure? What is the likeliest way for people to mess it up? If it strays too far from old practice, what will I do with the dozen to twenty people our of ninety who never read updates, won’t attend a review session, or who have been doing it for so long they can’t break old habits without great difficulty?
Have I inherited this pessimism from my chessplaying days? Or 25 years of parish ministry? Not as much as would like.
At any rate, it’s a good spur to examine some aspects of my life. What are my presumptions? About parenting, personal finances, hobbies, and even blogging? Is there anything I’m doing that I think is a good idea, but that maybe isn’t? This is one reason I value my wife and our relationship. Being rather different in many personality aspects, we negate the tendency for confirmation bias in one another. We have unity on the essentials: love, respect, faith. We challenge one another on important things: parenting, finances, lifestyle choices. It works better because we’re not the same, because we disagree, and I count my blessings for being a better person and that I don’t have an echo chamber going along with every good notion that pops into my head.
Our bishops, alas, do not enjoy this grace. The higher one goes in the church hierarchy, the more one senses that confirmation bias rules the day. Minds and hearts and spirits are like those chess amateurs. They find a good move. They believe in it. They look around them for confirmation. They don’t think of the negative consequences, and they don’t seem to test things morally, intellectually, theologically.